Risk Monitor
Risk Radar
Rate Sensitivity Analysis
Policy Timeline
Key Risk Factors
Credit Control
The 7th wave of selective credit controls is the most aggressive in Taiwan's history. LTV caps as low as 30% for third-property buyers, corporate purchase restrictions, and grace period bans have frozen speculative demand. Any relaxation would be a major sentiment catalyst.
Demographic Decline
Taiwan's fertility rate of 0.87 is among the world's lowest. Population peaked in 2020 and is now declining. Long-term housing demand faces structural headwinds, particularly outside major metro areas where vacancy rates already exceed 10%.
Geopolitical
Taiwan Strait tensions remain an overhang on property valuations. While markets have largely priced in baseline risk, any escalation could trigger capital flight and sharp repricing. Foreign institutional investors increasingly factor this into Taiwan exposure limits.
Rate Sensitivity
With yield spreads at +0.11%, Taiwan's property market is acutely sensitive to rate movements. A 50bp CBS hike would push spreads deeply negative and could tip affordability ratios past critical thresholds in major cities.