LAST UPDATED: Q3 2025
Supply Pipeline Analysis
From Land Acquisition to Overhang — A Complete Supply Chain View
Supply analysis requires tracking the full development pipeline:
Land Approval → Building Plan → Starts → Under Construction → Completions → CCC → Launch → Sales/Overhang
Each stage carries a lead time of 12–48 months, enabling forward projection of future supply pressure.
Land Approval → Building Plan → Starts → Under Construction → Completions → CCC → Launch → Sales/Overhang
Each stage carries a lead time of 12–48 months, enabling forward projection of future supply pressure.
A. Supply Pipeline Framework
Land
Acquisition
12–18m→
BP Approval
Building Plan
6–12m→
Starts
64,843
Q1-Q3 2025
36–48m→
Completions
69,303
Q1-Q3 2025
0–9m→
CCC
Certificate
9m+→
Overhang
28,672
Q3 2025
~250,000–300,000 units currently in pipeline (under construction)
Annual Supply Pipeline
Planned Supply vs Starts vs Completions
2024 starts of 106,236 units will complete in 2026–2028, forming a supply pressure wave.
2025 starts dropped 12.1% YoY — supply relief expected post-2027.
Key Signal: Starts contracted 12.1% in Q1–Q3 2025. The completion wave peaks in 2026–2027. New supply relief begins to register post-2027.
B. Forward Projection
Projected Completions 2026–2028
Based on 2022–2024 starts with 36–48 month lag
Supply peak expected 2026–2027, then relief as 2025 starts slow.
WIP vs Annual Absorption
~3.2 years of supply in pipeline at current absorption rates.
C. Overhang Deep Dive
Overhang by State (Q3 2025)
Overhang Trend 2018–2025
* 2025 Q3 includes serviced apartments — scope change.
Overhang by Price Band (1H2024)
Affordable (<RM300k) rivals mid-high end — overhang is no longer just a luxury problem.
Demand vs Supply Mismatch
Below RM300k: demand 53% vs supply 18% — 35pp gap. *Supply est.
Serviced Apartment vs Standard Residential
| Item | Serviced Apartment | Standard Residential |
|---|---|---|
| Legal Use | Commercial | Residential |
| Utility Rates | Commercial (higher) | Residential |
| Mortgage | Some banks: commercial loan | Standard housing loan |
| Affordable Quota | Lower or exempt | Must meet state requirements |
| Developer Land Cost | Lower (commercial) | Higher (residential) |
| Maintenance Fee | Typically higher | Typically lower |
Serviced apartments' commercial classification gives developers cost advantages but creates buyer disadvantages —
higher utilities, harder financing, and questionable long-term value for owner-occupiers.
D. Developer Behaviour
Developers know overhang is severe. The answer lies in land cost structure and profit margin mathematics.
Developer Launch Price Mix (Est.)*
*Directional estimates based on annual reports.
E. State Policy Impact
Foreign Buyer Minimum Threshold by State
*Policies subject to change; refer to latest state announcements.
Higher thresholds ≠ healthier markets. Penang set RM3M floor, yet Median Multiple remains 4.6 — local buyers have not benefited.