Risk Monitor
Policy, Macro & Structural Risk Dashboard
Risk Radar — 6 Dimensions
1 = Low Risk, 10 = Extreme Risk · Current vs 2023
OCR Forecast — RBNZ vs ANZ
Official Cash Rate path projections
Policy Timeline
Key Risk Factors
OCR Reversal
ANZ forecasts OCR could rise to 3.75% by Dec 2026 if inflation proves sticky. This would reverse mortgage relief gains and dampen buyer sentiment, particularly in Auckland where affordability is already stretched.
Housing Policy
Capital gains tax is back on the political agenda. Introduction would alter investor calculus significantly, potentially reducing demand from leveraged investors while improving first-home buyer access.
Auckland Oversupply
Auckland inventory sits at 31 weeks, well above the balanced market benchmark of 16-20 weeks. Combined with falling rents (-3.4% YoY), landlords face compressed yields and longer vacancy periods.
Demographic Shift
Net migration has dropped from the 130K peak in 2023 to an estimated 60K in 2025. Further slowdown would reduce rental demand and weaken the demand floor that supported prices during the downturn.