Valuation Monitor
Yield vs BOJ Rate
APAC Price-to-Rent Comparison
Price-to-Income Multiple
Valuation Framework
Yield Spread
At +3.09%, Tokyo's yield spread over the BOJ rate remains one of the most attractive in the APAC region. Even after the BOJ's historic rate normalization cycle, property yields comfortably cover borrowing costs, providing a genuine carry trade for leveraged investors.
Regional Value
Osaka (27x) and Fukuoka (26x) remain significantly cheaper than Tokyo (37x) on a price-to-rent basis. These secondary cities offer better yield profiles while benefiting from domestic migration, infrastructure investment, and tourism-driven demand growth.
Bubble Risk
Tokyo condo prices have surged +64% in four years, driven by foreign capital inflows, weak yen dynamics, and ultra-low rates. While fundamentals differ from the 1990s bubble, the pace of appreciation warrants caution — particularly in prime central Tokyo where price-to-income ratios exceed 15x.