Report Dashboard Supply Demand Valuation Risk Tokyo Osaka Fukuoka
BOJ: 0.5% ▲

Valuation Monitor

Tokyo P/R Ratio
37x
Numbeo
Osaka P/R Ratio
27x
Numbeo
Fukuoka P/R Ratio
26x
Numbeo
National Rental Yield
4.34%
Above regional average
Tokyo Spread vs BOJ
+3.09%
Positive carry
Tokyo Condo 4Y Change
+64%
Overheating signal

Yield vs BOJ Rate

APAC Price-to-Rent Comparison

Price-to-Income Multiple

Valuation Framework

Yield Spread

At +3.09%, Tokyo's yield spread over the BOJ rate remains one of the most attractive in the APAC region. Even after the BOJ's historic rate normalization cycle, property yields comfortably cover borrowing costs, providing a genuine carry trade for leveraged investors.

Regional Value

Osaka (27x) and Fukuoka (26x) remain significantly cheaper than Tokyo (37x) on a price-to-rent basis. These secondary cities offer better yield profiles while benefiting from domestic migration, infrastructure investment, and tourism-driven demand growth.

Bubble Risk

Tokyo condo prices have surged +64% in four years, driven by foreign capital inflows, weak yen dynamics, and ultra-low rates. While fundamentals differ from the 1990s bubble, the pace of appreciation warrants caution — particularly in prime central Tokyo where price-to-income ratios exceed 15x.